Pictogram Confidence Interval

Research Project: Close-to-reality system analysis with a confidence interval

Institute of Machine Components (IMA)

Modelling and Analysis of Reliability and Availability by stochastic modelling techniques considering continuously the statistical quality of the initial data
[Photo: Frank Müller]

With stochastic modelling techniques, it is possible to model complex, technical systems and to simulate their reliability and availability. At the moment, the statistical quality of the initial data cannot be considered within the analysis. Objective of the research project is the continuously consideration of the statistical quality of the input data within the analysis method, in order to combine the expressiveness of confidence intervals with the performance of the modelling techniques.

detailed project description (.pdf)

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Research project funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
Project number: 405325157


  1. Müller, Frank: Realitätsnahe Modellierung, Simulation und Analyse der operativen Zuverlässigkeits- und Verfügbarkeitskennwerte technischer Systeme mit Vertrauensbereich. Stuttgart, Institut für Maschinenelemente, Dissertation Nr. 200, 2021. — ISBN 978-3-948308-00-1
  2. Müller, Frank ; Zeiler, Peter ; Bertsche, Bernd: Coverage Probability of Methods for Steady-State Availability Inference with a Confidence Interval. In: Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, 2020 — IMA-ZUV 346 (peer-review)
  3. Müller, Frank ; Bertsche, Bernd: Simulation and Analysis of Simple, Repairable Systems with a Confidence Interval. In: ESREL 2019 Conference, 2019, S. 676–683 — IMA-ZUV 323 (peer-review)
  4. Müller, Frank ; Bertsche, Bernd: Availability Analyses of Maintained Systems with Confidence Intervals. In: RAMS 2019 Conference : Annual Reliability and Maintainablity Symposium, 2019 — IMA-ZUV 308 (peer-review)
  5. Müller, Frank ; Bertsche, Bernd: Verfügbarkeitsanalyse reparierbarer Système mit Vertrauensbereich. In: 29. VDI-Fachtagung Technische Zuverlässigkeit 2019. Bd. VDI-Berichte : VDI, 2019, S. 281–292 — IMA-ZUV 316
  6. Müller, Frank ; Zeiler, Peter ; Bertsche, Bernd: Bootstrap Monte Carlo Simulation of Reliability and Confidence Level with Periodical Maintenance. In: Forschung im Ingenieurwesen. Bd. 81, Springer (2017), Nr. 4, S. 383–393 — IMA-ZUV 287 (peer-review)
  7. Müller, Frank ; Gröber, Jan ; Rieker, Timo ; Zeiler, Peter ; Bertsche, Bernd: Development-based reliability modelling and analysis with Petri nets considering interactions. In: Proc. ESREL 2017 Conference, 2017. — ISBN 978-1-138-629370-0, S. 1949–1957 — IMA-ZUV 279 (peer-review)
  8. Gröber, Jan ; Müller, Frank ; Gauchel, Wolfgang ; Zeiler, Peter ; Bertsche, Bernd: Extended reliability analysis of mechatronic systems based on information obtained by design of experiments. In: Proc. 27th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, 2017. — ISBN 978-1-138-629370-0, S. 2371–2378 — IMA-ZUV 280 (peer-review)
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