pictogram Lifetime Model Timing Belt

Research Project: Lifetime model for a timing belt drive

Institute of Machine Components (IMA)

Lifetime model for a timing belt drive in steering gears based on design of experiments (L-DoE)
[Photo: Marco Arndt]

Design methods for drivetrain components are usually based on standardized guidelines or historically collected data. This also applies to synchronous belt drives such as timing belts, whose modern applications are characterized by increasing precision and performance. At the same time, their service life is directly influenced by numerous factors such as pretension, torque or ambient temperatures, or disturbed by variances in the tooth geometries. If there is a lack of specific understanding of the system, unplanned system failures or systematic over-dimensioning will result. In the presented reliability modeling project, this problem is addressed using the example of a passenger car steering gear. Using design of experiments for non-normally distributed lifetime data (L-DoE) and variable factor levels, relevant influencing factors are identified, their system effects quantified and transferred to an application-specific lifetime model.

detailed project description (.pdf)


  1. Arndt, Marco ; Dazer, Martin: Investigating Practical Orthogonality Deviations in RSM for Improved Predictive Reliability Modeling. In: RAMS 2024 Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainablity Symposium, 2024. — ISBN 978-8-3503-0769-6 — IMA-ZUV peer-review
  2. Arndt, Marco ; Dazer, Martin: Analysis of Efficiency in Response Surface Designs Considering Orthogonality Deviations and Cost Models. In: Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023) : Research Publishing, Singapore, 2023. — ISBN 978-981-18-8071-1, S. 1167–1174 — IMA-ZUV peer-review
  3. Arndt, Marco ; Dazer, Martin ; Raither, Wolfram ; Bertsche, Bernd: Parameter assessment for reliability modeling of machine components using heuristic screening. In: Forschung im Ingenieurwesen. Bd. 2023 (2023) — IMA-ZUV peer-review
  4. Arndt, Marco ; Dazer, Martin ; Raither, Wolfram: Zuverlässigkeits-Modellierung von Hochleistungs-Zahnriemen für PKW-Lenkgetriebe mittels statistischer Versuchsplanung – Herausforderungen und Potenziale. In: 11. VDI-Fachkonferenz Umschlingungsgetriebe 2022, Stuttgart, 13.-14.12.2022, 2022 — IMA-ZUV 404 (Präsentation)
  5. Kremer, Alexander ; Dücsö, Levente ; Bertsche, Bernd: Reliability Prediction using Design of Experiments. In: Proc. ESREL 2020 / PSAM 15 Conference, 2020 — IMA-ZUV 351
  6. Kremer, Alexander ; Bertsche, Bernd: A New Approach for Parametrizing Multidimensional Lifetime Models. In: 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, 2019. — ISBN 978-981-11-2724-3 — IMA-ZUV 324
  7. Kremer, Alexander ; Bertsche, Bernd ; Scholzen, Andreas: The influence of environmental and manufacturing conditions on lifetime and reliability predictions for industrial timing belt drives (2019) — IMA-ZUV 325
  8. Kremer, Alexander ; Bertsche, Bernd: A Methodology for Consideration of Uncertainty in Lifetime Design of Experiments. In: 2019 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2019 — IMA-ZUV 309
  9. Kremer, Alexander ; Bertsche, Bernd ; Scholzen, Andreas: Verbesserte Auslegung industrieller Zahnriemenantriebe durch Analyse von Breitenfaktoren und der Alterung. In: Dresdner Maschinenelemente Kolloquium 2019, 2019. — ISBN 978-3-96548-055-1 — IMA-ZUV 327
  10. Kremer, A. ; Bertsche, B. ; Scholzen, A.: Ermittlung von lebensdauerbeeinflussenden Faktoren bei Zahnriemengetrieben. In: Antriebstechnik. Bd. Jahrgang 74, Vereinigte Fachverlage GmbH (2018), S. S.148-153 — IMA-ZUV 304
  11. Kremer, A. ; Bertsche, B. ; Scholzen, A.: Methodik zur Prognose der Lebensdauer von Zahnriemengetrieben. In: Schweizer Maschinenelemente Kolloquium SMK 2018, 2018. — ISBN 978-3-95908-150-4 — IMA-ZUV 306
  12. Kremer, A. ; Bertsche, B.: Beschleunigte Zuverlässigkeitstests unter Berücksichtigung von Vertrauensbereichen. In: Forschung im Ingenieurwesen. Bd. 82. Berlin, Heidelberg, Springer (2018), Nr. 468, S. S. 1-15 — IMA-ZUV 303


This image shows Marco Arndt

Marco Arndt


Deputy Head of Reliability Department

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